US blip temporary, EUR/USD spread to widen – DB

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Danske Bank A/S noted that European government bond yields have continued to fall as the ECB purchase programme continues unabated.

Key Quotes:

“The programme has already pushed the average German yield below zero and German bonds with a maturity up to nine years are now trading in negative territory and bonds with a maturity up to five years are trading with a negative yield below 20bp, which is the threshold level for ECB buying.”

“We believe the trend for lower EUR rates and yields will continue for the rest of 2015, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than seen so far in 2015. The ECB has basically created a bond ‘scarcity premium’, which we expect to continue to flatten the curve and we expect new record lows over the next three to six months. We now forecast that 10Y German bond yields will fall to zero, or even below, over the next couple of months. We expect the move lower in EUR yields irrespective of our more positive view on the eurozone economy and inflation outlook. Although we forecast that US yields will rise, we expect this to have little impact on EUR rates in the near future.”

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Key NZ inflation data coming up – TDS

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at TD Securities noted the key event for NZ next week.

Key Quotes:

“Antipodean Inflation (NZ 19 Apr/Aust 22 Apr)”.

“For NZ we expect Q1 CPI to fall via petrol prices, with the annual print falling from +0.8% to zero, a little below consensus.”

“A shock for the markets and the RBNZ will be a tumble in domestic prices. For Australia we expect Q1 underlying inflation to remain at 2¼% Y/Y, as does consensus. Headline CPI will be near-flat due to the petrol price fall.”
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