RBI to cut rates or not? – RBS

FXStreet (Barcelona) – The Research Team at RBS, view that RBI would hold policy rates unchanged next Tuesday even as it faces an increasing political pressure for a rate cut.

Key Quotes

“The central bank is under increasing political pressure as Finance Minister Jaitley would press RBI Governor Rajan to lower borrowing costs at the MPC meeting scheduled on 2 December according to Reuters.”

“We expect the nation’s CPI inflation to ease further in the coming months on falling commodity prices while the RBI is likely to cut policy rates early next year to bolster the nation’s economic growth. We think easing monetary policy could weaken the INR in a knee-jerk response but markedly steepen the inverted INR ND OIS curve that has bull-flattened a lot since April this year.”

“We remain bullish on the INR in the year of 2015 on the back of improving inflation-growth outlook.”

“We would stay with our short EUR/INR cross position to chase the INR’s high yield. The ECB’s QE programme and sustained market hopes of reform efforts of Indian government could send the cross pair lower.”

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ECB to downgrade inflation forecasts again? – ING

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Carsten Brzeski , analyst at INg explained that for next week’s ECB meeting, today’s German inflation data could be the prelude of another downward revision of the ECB’s inflation forecasts.

Key Quotes:

“Back in September, ECB staff had projected an average inflation rate of 1.1% for 2015 and 1.4% for 2016. Even without any significant changes to the growth outlook, the latest drop in energy prices should be sufficient to automatically lead to lower inflation forecasts”.

“Remember that last month, ECB president Draghi had described two “contingencies” for further action: the current measures are not enough to reach the new (soft) balance sheet target, and a worsening of the medium-term outlook for inflation”.

“Obviously, next week will be too early to give an assessment on the first contingency but with lower inflation projections, one of the two lights needed to start QE could already be lit green next week.
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EUR/JPY dropping back sub 147 handle

FXStreet (Guatemala) – EUR/JPY is trading at 146.89, down -0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 147.32 and low at 146.42.

EUR/JPY has moved back on itself post the OPEC data when the pair rallied through 147.00 due to a decision to leave the 30 million barrel day quota as it is.

The price of Brent Crude oil, the major bench-mark for world oil prices, was falling as low as $ 71.23 at the time of writing from $ 76.61 just today which should be supportive of Asian importers where otherwise the weaker Yen has been sighted to be worrisome for the Japanese domestic economy and households in general.

Previous to the activity of the US shift, the euro took a bout of supply on the nose but there were German unemployment improvements for November at -14k compared to -1K expected and the unemployment rate 6.6% vs 6.7% expected and down from 6.7% previous. Germany’s inflation data was in line year on year 0.6% but lower at 0.0% vs 0.1% expected but up on previous change at -0.3%.
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